ALEXANDRIA, Va. – The upset win by Scott Brown (R) in Massachusetts to fill the Senate seat held for 46 years by Senator Edward Kennedy (D) has implications for a variety of issues important to NACS members — most pointedly health-care reform.

With the Republicans adding one more to their caucus, they now have a total count of 41 members, leaving the Democrats with only 59. This number is now one short of the 60-vote “super majority” the Democrats have held following the 2008 election, which gave the party the upper hand when it came to passing legislation with or without Republican input or votes. With the Democrats no longer having a super majority, Republicans can band together and filibuster proposed legislation through prolonged debate, procedural motions and other actions designed to shut down any bill they choose.

“This is a game changer for the health-care debate,” said NACS Director of Government Relations Julie Fields. “While it’s too early to say that health-care reform is dead, it leaves the president and Democrats in a tough position with a tight timeline. “

Prior to the Jan. 19 election, health-care reform was being negotiated in closed-door sessions between the House and Senate. It was widely expected that a compromise bill would emerge from the negotiations, enabling Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to round up the votes necessary to get a final bill to the president’s desk. Now that the Senate super majority has been broken, it seems unlikely that Democrats would be able to pass compromise legislation in the Senate.

Fields said that the election has changed how the Democrats will pursue health-care reform and that there are three alternative strategies Democratic leaders could pursue:

1. Convince the House to accept and pass, without changes, the version of health-care reform that the Senate passed in December 2009. “This would be a tall order for Speaker Pelosi to pull off,” noted Fields. “In the past four weeks, numerous House Democrats have expressed opposition to a variety of provisions in the Senate bill including, the loss of a strong public option, taxes and abortion. These members were expecting a compromise and it will be difficult to go back to their districts and explain that they voted ‘yes’ simply because they believe something was better than nothing,” she said.
2. Take action on the portions of reform that have been agreed upon so far and try to push through a quick vote in both the House and the Senate before Brown is sworn in. “This, too, could prove difficult in the current political environment,” said Fields. “With Massachusetts voters sending a strong message that many in the country interpret as a referendum on health-care reform, it may prove too risky for the Democratic party to rush a vote in an election year,” she said.
3. Convince a Republican senator to vote “yes” on a final package. “The question is, where would the Democrats find this vote?” said Fields. “Senators Susan Collins (R-ME) and George Voinovich (R-OH) have said they would vote ‘no.’ Another target of Democratic leadership would likely be Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME),” she said.

What does this mean for the convenience store industry? For one, health-care reform will remain up in the air.

“This loss for the Democrats will not deter them from seeking some other vehicle for their proposals,” said Fields. She added that NACS will continue to focus on the following issues related to health-care reform to ensure that members’ interests are represented in the debate, regardless of which direction policymakers pursue:

• NACS opposes imposition of an employer mandate that fines employers if they don’t offer coverage (and in some cases, even if they do);
• NACS seeks a clear and fair definition of full-time and part-time workers;
• NACS is against provisions requiring the automatic enrollment of employees or unreasonable waiting period limitations that trigger the imposition of fines.

The election of Senator-elect Brown will likely have a significant influence over other looming issues, including but not limited to the Employee Free Choice Act (aka, card check) and climate change legislation. Without a super majority, President Obama and the Democratic leadership will have to either work with Republicans or put aside these major initiatives.