Iowans may not have caught on to Democratic Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton’s message, but voters in New Hampshire tuned in. This week’s results from the New Hampshire Presidential Primary continue to prove the road to the White House is anything but a smooth surface. Here is a little perspective from your NACS government relations team on what took place…
On the Republican Side:
John McCain was declared the winner within an hour of the polls closings. McCain won with 37 percent of the vote compared to 32 percent for Mitt Romney. An insider’s point of view has the Republican turnout lower than 2000 and about a third of exit poll respondents said they were Independents. McCain would have placed third had all candidates run on the same ballot. Mike Huckabee placed fourth with 11 percent and Rudy Giuliani held onto fourth with 9 percent.
On the Democratic Side:
After the election booths closed, pollsters looked pretty dim-witted as Hillary Clinton was declared the winner in what some pundits called an upset. Her 39 percent to 37 percent narrow lead over Barack Obama held up as more and more of the precincts reported. Almost 40 percent of the Democratic turnout came from Independents and most counties tallied higher turnout than previous elections. Clinton came out as the winner among Democrats and women with Obama winning with Independents, men, and those under the age of 30. John Edwards placed third with 17 percent and Bill Richardson received 5 percent of the vote.
What’s Next on the Primary Horizon?
January 15: Michigan. January 19: Nevada. January 19: South Carolina Republicans. January 26: South Carolina Democrats. January 29: Florida.
With almost a month left before the big February 5 primaries some significant home-state advantages are coming up and it is still way too early to declare anyone’s campaign over. But it looks like some campaigns need reworking before they head back to the campaign trail.
A few interesting points to keep in mind as you watch this unfold: We don't know for sure by which date half the delegates will be chosen. The next set of primary/caucus states are hard to count because the national parties intend to punish states for holding their contests early.
Democrats have said all 210 delegates from Florida and 156 from Michigan will be denied a seat at the convention. Republicans will take away 50 percent of Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Wyoming, for a total of 137 delegates rejected/137 accepted. Eventually, some sort of negotiating or deal making will take place, maybe at the convention or even a floor fight to seat these delegations.
Candidates are not completely finished until they lose on their home turf on February 5 (Arizona, Arkansas, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Mexico, New York and Tennessee). Candidates are also not finished as long as they win significant delegates in a big state (New York, California), and nobody else in the field is close to a majority. Our guess is that that no one comes out of February 5 mathematically guaranteed the nomination on either side of the political spectrum. Everything is still way to close to call with no real inevitable candidate on either side.
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18.4 Cents Per Gallon: Not Enough?
The National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission is expected to issue recommendations next week that the federal gas tax of 18.4 cents per gallon be raised “a pretty hefty” amount. This increase would help offset a potential $5 billion shortfall in federal highway funding next year when Congress takes up the transportation reauthorization bill.
The commission, created in the 2005, is made up of public officials and industry experts. Specifically, there are three presidential appointees, eight congressional appointees, and the secretary of the Department of Transportation. It is expected that Transportation Secretary Mary Peters will be in opposition of the commission’s recommendation.
The House and Senate have already scheduled hearings to evaluate the commission’s report. In the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Chairman Jim Oberstar (D-MN) has publically backed the increase; however Ranking Member John Mica (R-FL) does not support it.
It should be noted that earlier this week The U.S. Chamber of Commerce came out in favor of a gas tax increase with the stipulation that all of the money be accounted for as transportation funding and not lost in the black hole of the government’s checkbook. This is definitely an issue on our radar screen.
That’s all from Washington, have a good weekend.
Chris Tampio, senior director, government relations Julie Fields, manager, government relations