IEA Predicts United States Will Lead in Oil Output by 2015

The agency also forecasts that OPEC will regain leverage after 2020.

November 15, 2013

OTTAWA, Ontario – The United States will surpass Saudi Arabia as the world’s top oil producer by 2015, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Globe and Mail reports. The agency also predicts that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), while its importance will lessen over the next 10 years, will recoup its leverage after 2020.

“Although rising oil output from North America and Brazil reduces the role of OPEC countries in quenching the world’s thirst for oil over the next decade, the Middle East – the only large source of low-cost oil – takes back its role as a key source of oil supply growth from the mid-2020s,” said IEA in its yearly World Energy Outlook.

The United States increased oil production will catapult the country ahead of Saudi Arabia a full year ahead of the agency’s original predictions. However, within a decade, the oilfields in Texas and North Dakota will be on the wane and OPEC will once again rise to prominence.

IEA also forecasts that oil prices will continue to accelerate to $128 a barrel by 2035, up $3 from last year’s outlook. The world’s energy demand increases will happen nearly exclusively in developing nations, with the Middle East and India surpassing China after 2020.

“We have the tools to deal with such profound market change,” said Maria van der Hoeven, IEA executive director. “Those that anticipate global energy developments successfully can derive an advantage, while those that do not risk taking poor policy and investment decisions.”

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