NEW YORK – Despite reassurances from the Obama administration that the Affordable Care Act will make it easier for them to find more cost-effective insurance options for their employees, “small businesses aren’t buying it,” the Wall Street Journal writes.

The resistance is not just speculative, but the findings of a Public Opinion Strategies survey of more than 400 business owners with between 40 and 500 employees. According to the survey, notes the WSJ, 64% of small business franchise owners believe the law will have a “negative impact” on their business, while only 5% anticipate a “positive impact.” For non-franchisee businesses, the ratio was 53% negative and 12% positive.

More problematic, writes the WSJ, is how these small businesses are responding to the new law. The survey reveals 27% of franchise businesses and 12% of non-franchises have already replaced full-time employees with part-time workers, a direct result of the law’s mandate.

The survey also reveals the reality of the “49er” effect — those businesses that will cap their full-time payroll workforce at 49 employees to avoid the ACA’s insurance mandate.

For firms with between 40 and 70 employees, more than half said they are likely to 
"make personnel decisions to keep" their "workforce below the threshold of 50 full-time employees and avoid the requirements and penalties associated with the new health care law."

Twenty-eight percent of businesses said that in 2015, when the employer mandate takes full effect, it is “likely” they will drop their insurance coverage and pay the $2,000-a-year penalty per employee.