WASHINGTON, D.C – The Senate races have been hanging by a thread for the better part of a month. Last night, they culminated in a surprising Republican victory. Up 54-46 in the current Senate, the Republicans overcame having to defend 24 of 34 in-cycle seats and rode a Donald Trump turnout model to national victory and an outright Senate majority. The new party division, with the Louisiana race still to be decided in a December 10 run-off election, and New Hampshire too close to call at this writing, is 51R–47D.
The majority of the most well-known toss-up contests were in five states: Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania—before Indiana and Wisconsin joined the group in the waning days of the campaign. In the end, all but Nevada and possibly New Hampshire broke in the Republicans’ favor. Most of these races were tight, as expected.
The biggest margin surprise was Republican Todd Young scoring a 10-point victory in Indiana over former Sen. Evan Bayh (D), who originally led by 21 points. North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr (R) scored a 6-point win, but all of the other toss-ups were in the 2-3 point realm. The biggest surprise of the night was Sen. Ron Johnson (R) holding his Wisconsin seat, despite only two polls during the entire last year ever showing him to be ahead. Though the race closed in the end, former Sen. Russ Feingold (D) continued to hold a consistent advantage.
Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) holds the Democrats’ open Nevada seat, and becomes the first female candidate of Latin descent to enter the U.S. Senate. Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt (R), on the ropes during the last few weeks of the campaign, managed to secure a 3-point victory. In another surprise, Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey (R) again defied the odds and held his marginal seat, also in the face of bad polling, to secure another six-year term.
The one state that did flip from R to D was Illinois, where Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-Hoffman Estates) successfully unseated first-term Sen. Mark Kirk (R), as expected.
The new Senate leadership slate will likely be:
Majority Leader: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Majority Whip: Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX)
Minority Leader: Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
Minority Whip: Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL)
U.S. House
Republicans held their House majority, only losing 6-9 seats, depending upon the calling of final races that are still outstanding. This brings the new majority to the 236-239R range, with Democrats falling between 196 and 199.
Republicans held the House largely because of favorable redistricting maps, and a poor Democratic candidate recruiting season minimized the latter party’s number of competitive challengers, plus a moderately favorable turnout model at the top of the ticket.
Republicans maintained 90% of their open seats, which includes likely December 10 run-off contests in Louisiana’s Districts 3 and 4.
Though Democrats ran with a strategy of attempting to tie all Republican candidates to who they believed was a flawed presidential nominee in Donald Trump, the approach failed. Republicans were able to reelect all but six of their incumbents, thus underscoring that the Trump/GOP House member connection produced relatively few Democratic victories. Of the incumbent and open-seat GOP losses, four were directly due to mid-decade redistricting plans that were enacted before the 2016 election.
Several Republicans, like Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO-6) and Rod Blum (R-IA-1), again survived in difficult districts for any Republican.
For more on the 2016 election, including seven key issues to the convenience retailing industry and the NACS position on each, see “Election Preview” in the October 2016 issue of NACS Magazine. Follow NACS Daily this week for continued coverage as deeper analysis develops.
Jim Ellis is the publisher of the Ellis Insight publication, a service of Weber Merritt Public Affairs.