Election Day Recap: What It Means for Our Industry

As Republicans do better than expected in mid-term elections, optimism grows for upcoming 114th Congress.

November 05, 2014

WASHINGTON – Last night went largely to form for the Republicans, with few surprises on either side. In fact, with one notable exception, the only real surprise from last night seems to be the margin of victory for some Republican candidates. 

In the Senate, Republicans have a current net gain of 7 seats, giving them a 52–48 majority in the upper chamber next year, with a final race (Louisiana) headed to a December 6 run-off. In the House, Republicans appear to have a total net gain of 12 seats, losing only one incumbent so far — Lee Terry (R-NE-2) is trailing but the race remains too close to call — giving them the largest majority they have had since World War II and beating their stated goal of 11 seats. 

The Senate: In the Senate, the Republicans effectively held their own in seats that they currently hold, with surprising margins of victory for the party’s Senate leader Mitch McConnell (KY) and Kansas Senator Pat Roberts, among others. The only real surprise of the night for most prognosticators was in Virginia, where former Bush administration official and Republican National Committee Chair Ed Gillespie is within 0.6% of incumbent Senator Mark Warner and vowing to keep up the fight until all votes are counted. 

The House: Republicans had a stated goal of a net gain of 11 seats, for a total of 245. In fact, it appears that they have gained 12 seats and will hold their largest majority since World War II, with 246 seats. The lowlights for Republicans were the loss of incumbent Steve Southerland (R-FL-2) and potential loss for Lee Terry (R-NE-2) who trails in a race that remains too close to call. Southerland was defeated by a razor thin 50.4%–49.6% margin. Terry currently trails Democrat Brad Ashford by just over 4,000 votes, pointing to the 15,000 uncounted absentee ballots in the district as the reason for not yet conceding this tight race. 

What the election means for our industry: Obviously, the major shift here will be in the Senate, where Harry Reid (D-NV) will lose his position as Majority Leader and with it, the ability to set the Senate agenda. Democrats will also lose their hold on the chairmanships of major committees. In January, Mitch McConnell will be installed as Majority Leader and various Republican senators will seize the gavels of all Senate committees. In many committees, exactly which Republican will be named chair remains an open question. In the House, you can often assume that when a party swings the majority, most of the current ranking members of committees will take over in the new Congress. That isn’t quite as true in the Senate, where further machinations often take place to determine who will be named chair of key committees.  As those assignments come into focus over the coming weeks, we’ll be sure to keep you informed.

Ultimately, we don’t expect to see a seismic shift in the accomplishments of the United States Congress in the 114th Congress. The fact remains that the Senate still requires 60 votes to pass any legislation and President Obama continues to wield his veto power, which requires a two-thirds majority vote in both Chambers to override. 

The bright spot is the possibility that the increased size of the House majority may give Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) a “working” majority that would not be as tightly controlled by the far right of the party that has held such sway over the House for the past four years. By expanding the majority, he has opened up his “margin for error” and will hopefully be able to pass meaningful legislation.

In the end, the 114th Congress could portend good things for some of the issues we care about the most. Reforming the pending Menu Labeling rule, if necessary, is an issue that has seen some bipartisan support and while legislation may not move during the upcoing lame duck session, dual Republican majorities may be more likely to pass it during the next Congress. Energy issues will likely receive new scrutiny and we may be able to gain some traction on Renewable Fuel Standard reform. With “Restore America’s Wire Act” lead Senate co-sponsor Lindsey Graham (R-SC) moving to the majority, and lead House Co-Sponsor Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) eyeing the government reform gavel in that chamber, we may see some movement on Internet Lottery legislation as well.  

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