Election Day Countdown: Where Do We Stand

Looking at current knowledge and trends, what can we predict for Election Day 2014?

October 28, 2014

ALEXANDRIA, Va. – With elections only a week away, NACS has prepared detailed election coverage for the October issue of NACS Magazine, including a summary of where NACS stands on our industry’s key legislative issues, and race-by-race listings for both House and Senate.

Mid-term elections also represent a good time to peruse the national political picture. According to the NACS Magazine article authored by political consultant Jim Ellis, low primary turnout tells us we should expect to see below-average general election voter participation. And with President Obama recording his lowest job approval numbers since taking office, and Congress languishing around all-time lows in public perception and confidence, it seems probable that less people will vote than in previous elections.

If this is the case, which party will benefit most from a low voter turnout? The answer: The group whose base voters are more intense about the upcoming election. But this can change depending on region and specific state and local issues.

U.S. Senate
Turning to specific elections, the Senate races are trending Republican as of press time, but this can quickly change. The GOP had only two seats — Georgia and Kentucky — in the endangered category but both would result in close Republican victories if the elections took place tomorrow. However, a new defensive GOP situation is becoming highly competitive in Kansas, as Senator Pat Roberts (R) continues to perform poorly, competitive Independent candidate Greg Orman is becoming a serious contender with legitimate potential to score an upset victory.

NACS perspective on the Senate
All eyes are on the Senate. With so many competitive and “too close to call” Senate races, voters may not know the fate of the chamber until days or weeks after Election Day. There is a high probability that Republicans will gain seats in the Senate, but the question will be whether or not they win enough seats to reach the magic number of 51. If they do, Republicans will control the legislative agenda and gain chairmanship of all Senate committees. However, with the Senate’s unique set of procedures, there actually needs to be 60 votes to allow for a vote on legislation. It is highly unlikely that even if Republicans took the majority in the Senate that they would have 60 seats. Thus, a flip in the Senate does not necessarily mean a pile up of bills moving through the Senate, or that bills will move faster. Like the House, legislative progress will be measured in inches — not miles.

U.S. House of Representatives
Democrats need only to convert 17 seats to regain control of the 435-member body. Though 50 seats are rated as competitive, only 25 are Republican-held. This means that the minority Democrats are in a defensive position in half of the most competitive seats, an unenviable position for a party attempting to make serious gains. Expect the Republicans to hold their majority and actually make slight gains in November.

NACS perspective on the House of Representatives
Most pundits agree that Republicans will likely retain their majority in the House of Representatives for the 114th Congress, which means they will continue to control the legislative agenda of the House for another two years. Though there may be a few new faces chairing key legislative committees — such as the Ways and Means Committee and the Budget Committee — the chairmen of key committees (where many of our industry’s legislative priorities reside) will remain. With little change in the House of Representatives, continued distrust of the Obama administration and a high level of partisanship, it is unlikely that the House will be able to move large, sweeping legislation. The legislative agenda will most likely continue to be modest at best.

In conclusion, with only the House appearing to be in a stable political situation, we can count on a wild and wooly November 4 election night, says Ellis. With so many close Senate elections in play, both parties have the potential of either barely winning the Senate majority or actually doing so comfortably.

The unanswered question concerns whether a political wave will develop. If so, it will likely form for Republicans. With President Obama at the low ebb of his tenure in office, it is unlikely that the Democrats can build enough energy within their political base to ignite intensity. Republicans are more likely to do so, but their energy will have to emanate from negativity toward Democrats rather than a combination of anti-incumbent and positive Republican sentiments. This makes constructing a sweeping wave difficult.

The GOP seems content to let the election become a referendum about President Obama’s leadership and policies without promoting a positive alternative, a complicated strategy to implement when controlling one leg of the legislative stool (the House) and facing a hostile national media.

With record disapproval ratings for the nation’s chief executive and Congress, it would be ironic to see a status quo result. But, the GOP retaining the House and the Democrats maintaining a smaller Senate majority is a highly plausible election night scenario.

For complete NACS coverage of the mid-terms election, read more here and view the 2013-14 NACS Congressional Scorecard here.

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