Round Two Goes To…

Did Trump rebound? Political consultant Jim Ellis breaks down Sunday’s debate.

October 11, 2016

ALEXANDRIA, Va. – Donald Trump had his work cut out for him before Sunday night’s debate and appears to have saved his badly damaged campaign—at least for the short term. 

Going into the forum, a score of GOP officeholders and party leaders had withdrawn their support for Trump, the Republican National Committee chairman put the Trump Victory program on hold, and a movement was beginning to develop within the Republican National Committee membership to remove their nominated presidential candidate.

All of this was in reaction to a videotape of Trump making lewd comments about women from 11 years ago that the media released two days before the debate. He used his response time, however, spinning some of the attention back to former President Bill Clinton and sexual abuse claims made against him many years ago. 

Whether the performance helps Trump rebound back into a competitive stance vis-à-vis the election remains to be seen, but he performed well enough to keep his running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, in line and on the ticket, and he appears positioned to move forward.

Trump also brought Hillary Clinton’s email situation to the forefront, and did so aggressively knowing that the moderators, CNN’s Anderson Cooper and ABC News’ Martha Raddatz, would not question her about that particular subject. Trump was also aggressive in dealing with the moderators, at one point suggesting that the debate was deteriorating into a “three against one” format.

Though the debate structure was billed and staged as a town hall format, Cooper and Raddatz allowed the audience to ask very few questions and instead dominated the questioning.

Clinton performed well in rebutting some of the attacks, but was particularly good at controlling her emotions and responses to what were tough confrontations that Mr. Trump initiated. Realistically, responding in such a manner may have been all she had to do to remain as the campaign’s front-runner.

Though Trump may have extinguished some major immediate political fires, it is unclear if he can fully rebound from his current position to challenge Clinton in the all-important states. Though the national poll numbers have not yet reflected a major Trump downturn from the latest videotape flap (we will likely see a trend in this week’s data), he was falling behind her in the most critical states even before Sunday’s debate began.

To win, Trump must at least carry Florida, Ohio and North Carolina—Clinton can win even when losing all three. In the Sunshine State, two early October polls, one from Gravis Marketing and the other from NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College, found the former Secretary of State regaining a small two- and three-point lead. In Ohio, three more surveys conducted since October 4 posted Clinton to advantages of one to four points. And in North Carolina, three surveys taken during periods that end October 3 project Clinton up between one and three points.

The Florida, Ohio and North Carolina state numbers are critical especially for Trump because if he loses any one of these domains, he virtually has no chance of winning the general election.

Jim Ellis is the publisher of the Ellis Insight publication, a service of Weber Merritt Public Affairs (webermerritt.com). 

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