WASHINGTON, D.C. – With the federal government shutdown continuing, retailers are not predicting a very merry holiday season, Advertising Age reports. The National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates that sales in November and December will jump a mere 3.9% this year, a sliver ahead of last year’s 3.5% increase. Spending will reach $602.1 billion, kept in check by the still-recovering economy and the lack of a federal budget.

“Our forecast is a realistic look at where we are right now in this economy -- balancing continued uncertainty in Washington and an economy that has been teetering on incremental growth for years,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “Overall, retailers are optimistic for the 2013 holiday season, hoping political debates over government spending and the debt ceiling do not erase any economic progress we've already made.”

Shay said that resolution of the stalemate could change the holiday sale prediction. “Our forecast is also somewhat hinging on Congress and the Administration's actions over the next 45 days; without action, we face the potential of losing the faith Americans have in their leaders, and the pursuant decrease in consumer confidence,” he said.

The International Council of Shopping Centers also released its forecast of a 3.4% sales advance, which is fairly close to the NRF’s prediction. Retailers are also cautious about sales, with Abercrombie & Fitch, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Kohl’s and Target all not overly optimistic about spending. Overall, consumers seem to be buying “hard goods,” such as televisions, cars and home improvements, rather than apparel.