WASHINGTON – The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) short-term forecasts of gasoline consumption, which cover the current and upcoming calendar year, have risen over the past year.

The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on Tuesday, expects 2014 gasoline consumption to be 8.82 million barrels per day (135.2 billion gallons), 0.13 million barrels per day (2 billion gallons) higher than last November's forecast.

The STEO forecast of 2014 gasoline consumption was generally declining between January 2013 and September 2013, but has risen over the past year. The gasoline consumption forecast reflects changes in a number of key factors, such as gasoline prices, economic and employment trends, weather, demographics, changes in consumer behavior patterns, as well as new data on actual consumption.

EIA reports that during the first quarter of 2013, gasoline consumption increased by only 6,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) over the same period during 2012. By Q4 2013, the year-over-year increase in gasoline consumption had risen to an average 320,000 bbl/d.

This increase in consumption did not last long. During Q1 2014, consumption averaged 66,000 bbl/d higher than the same period in 2013. (The Federal Highway Administration reports a similar increase of 62,000 bbl/d for the first quarter of 2014.) During the Q2 2014, consumption began to show year-over-year declines in May and June, with an average increase for the period of 20,000 bbl/d. EIA expects continuing year-over-year declines during the second half of 2014, averaging 79,000 bbl/d.

EIA says that the general outlook for gasoline is for declining consumption as average new vehicle fuel economy continues to improve. As new cars replace less-efficient older cars, the increase in the average fleet fuel economy is expected to outpace the growth in the driving age population and vehicle miles traveled and put continuing downward pressure on gasoline consumption.