Back-to-School Sales Expected to Be Flat

More consumers will hit department stores to shop this year than ever before, but without a big rise in sales.

July 25, 2011

WASHINGTON, D.C. ?" As they prepare for their annual back-to-school shopping trip, parents this year will make children scour their closets before agreeing to buy any new jeans, pencils or backpacks. According to the National Retail Federation??s 2011 Back-to-School survey conducted by BIGresearch, families with children in grades K-12 will spend an average of $603.63 on apparel, school supplies and electronics, within a few dollars of last year??s $606.40 average. Total spending on grades K-12 is expected to reach $22.8 billion.

Combined K-12 and college spending will reach $68.8 billion, serving as the second biggest consumer spending event for retailers behind the winter holidays. "Families aren??t opposed to spending on what they need, but parents want their children to take a good look around at what they already have before deciding what to buy for back to school this year," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay, in a press release. "Retailers understand consumers are extremely focused on value and are taking this opportunity to offer substantial savings on merchandise."

Although the worst of the recession is over, a shadow of insecurity still remains when it comes to how the economy will influence consumers?? back-to-school plans. According to the survey, Americans are compensating for the economy by purchasing more store-brand or generic items (39.9 percent), comparison shopping more online (29.8 percent), and shopping for sales (50.0 percent). Additionally, nearly half of survey respondents said the economy is forcing them to simply spend less in general (43.7 percent).

Having done their own homework on what today??s families want, department stores are expected to see a surge in back-to-school traffic thanks to popular private labels, promotions and innovative social media campaigns. According to the survey, 57.0 percent of back-to-school shoppers will head to a department store, up from 53.9 percent last year and the most in the survey??s eight-year history. Though the majority of back-to-school shoppers plan to make at least one purchase from a discount store (68.4 percent), clothing stores (48.7 percent), office supply stores (38.0 percent) and electronics stores (21.7 percent) will also be popular. Additionally, more people this year will shop online (31.7 percent versus 30.8 percent last year) and in drug stores (21.1 percent versus 19.5 percent last year).

Though many retailers began filling their shelves with merchandise right after the Fourth of July, more parents this year will start their shopping closer to the beginning of school.

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