WASHINGTON – The average retail price for gasoline this summer (April through September) is expected to be $2.67 per gallon, the lowest price since 2009 (adjusted for inflation), based on projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This decline is mainly the result of the projected 41% year-over-year decline in the average price of North Sea Brent crude oil.

Travel and gasoline consumption are expected to be higher this summer compared to last year’s levels, with consumption is expected to increase by 194,000 barrels per day, up 2.1% from last summer. This increase reflects higher real disposable income, substantially lower retail motor gasoline prices, and higher employment and consumer confidence.

According to EIA, driving this summer (as measured by vehicle miles traveled) is expected to be 2.2% higher than last summer, the largest year-over-year summer increase in 11 years. The increase in highway travel is not just a response to the drop in gasoline prices. Real disposable income is projected to be 3.6% higher than last summer, the largest year-over-year increase in nine years.