NEW YORK – The Fed’s raising of long-term interest rates
threatens sales of homes, cars and other expensive items that to-date have
helped drive the U.S. economic recovery, the Wall Street Journal reports.
While economists maintain the increases aren’t likely to
derail the recovery, they are high enough to raise worries among consumers and
corporate executives.
"It causes me to be a bit
more cautious," said Ron DeFeo, the chief executive of Connecticut-based
Terex Corp., a manufacturer of heavy building machines. "I am hesitant
because I really don't believe the U.S. economy is in a strong growth
mode."
The U.S. economy grew at a 1.8% annualized rate in the first
quarter this year, following a stagnant fourth quarter of 2012, the Commerce
Department said earlier this week. A large contributor to the growth was
spending on big-ticket consumer goods and home construction, both sensitive to
interest rates. Without those two sectors, the economic growth was just 0.9% in
the first quarter and negative in the fourth quarter of 2012.
While auto dealers and economists aren’t screaming danger
just yet, they are expressing heightened concerns.
"As we speak today the car
market is generally healthy, but it's very fragile all in the same
breath," said William C. Fox, who owns four new and used car dealerships
in upstate New York. "We feel it very quickly if something goes
wrong."
"It's
too early to form a judgment about the degree of the backup," Dallas Fed
President Richard Fisher said in an interview Wednesday. "Markets are
still sorting through the signals they are receiving."
Economists at Goldman Sachs have predicted that the interest
rate increases and lower stock prices could cut 0.4 percentage point off U.S.
growth in the next year. The Mortgage Bankers
Association said Wednesday that applications to refinance mortgages decreased
last week to their lowest level since November 2011.
Taking a more optimistic view, Frederick Cooper, senior vice
president of finance, international development and investor relations at Toll
Brothers Inc. said the rising rates reflect a stronger economy and an improving
job market.
"Those are the really compelling things that benefit
housing, and I think those far outweigh the interest rate impact, given where
interest rates are today," he said.