WASHINGTON – According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014), more-stringent vehicle fuel economy standards will contribute to a decline in motor gasoline consumption through 2040. At the same time, growth in heavy-duty vehicle miles traveled is greater than those vehicles’ fuel economy, contributing to rising diesel fuel demand.

One of the primary drivers of the decrease in motor gasoline consumption is more stringent fuel economy standards that, based on National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) estimates, will require new light-duty vehicles to average about 49 miles per gallon by the 2025 model year (compared to the current compliance estimate of about 33 miles per gallon in 2012).

While vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are expected to increase overall, ostensibly leading to increased fuel consumption, in fact, higher fuel efficiency standards more than offset this increase to result in an overall decline in motor gasoline consumption.

In contrast to the projected decline in gasoline use, a strong increase in heavy-duty vehicle use leads to an increase in consumption of diesel fuel. New refinery projects are expected to focus on shifting production from gasoline to distillate fuels to meet growing domestic and global demand for diesel. In addition to meeting domestic demand, refineries continue to export finished products to international markets.