Personal Mobility Transforms the Path from Point A to B

Deloitte research shows that changes are coming in personal mobility, but are consumers ready for autonomous vehicles and other new vehicle technologies?

June 02, 2017

DENVER – Deloitte’s Future of Mobility research suggests that the entire path that people take to travel from point A to point B is changing, and is creating a new ecosystem of personal mobility. Ryan Robinson, associate director of research at Deloitte Canada, brought these insights to the stage at the Fuels Institute’s Annual Meeting last week in Denver.

Shifts in personal mobility will affect numerous industries, from automakers to fuel retailers, to transportation and energy stakeholders—shifts that also will reach far greater than self-driving cars. Robinson shared that Deloitte has been studying this phenomenon for about a decade, noting that countries around the world are in different stages of market development.

There are two sides of the coin about how the future of mobility could evolve, explained Robinson. In one camp is the “insider view,” where mobility will evolve naturally and incrementally toward a system that retains its roots in what exists today. This mindset is focused on sustaining current mobility models while simultaneously testing change in small ways. Camp two is the “disrupter view,” where a new age is dawning that features fully autonomous cars accessible to consumers on demand. For this camp, a tipping point will occur within the next 5 to 10 years, after which the momentum of change will be unstoppable.

“Consumers may not be ready for the change that’s starting to occur,” said Robinson, echoing similar thoughts from speakers at the Fuels Institute’s event that a significant barrier of adoption for new vehicle technologies is, in fact, the consumer.

To learn more about how consumers feel about self-driving vehicle technology, Deloitte surveyed 22,000 consumers in 17 countries. The findings suggest that globally, consumers are at various levels of their desire for autonomous capabilities. Those four levels are outlined below:

  1. Basic: Automation that allows the driver to be in complete control with vehicle performing specific automated tasks
  2. Advanced: Automation that combines at least two functions, such as adaptive cruise control and lane centering technology
  3. Limited Self-Driving: Automation that allows the vehicle to take over all driving functions under certain traffic and environmental conditions
  4. Full Self-Driving: Automation that allows the vehicle to take over all driving functions for an entire trip

“China and India have high rates of traffic fatalities, so when you think about the safety benefits that autonomous can bring to those markets, consumer reactions are stronger for the technology,” Robinson said, whereas in Germany, there is more of a driving culture and therefore self-driving is not resonating with those consumers. 

He shared that consumer desirability for fully self-driving vehicles has in fact flattened or even declined in some global markets since 2014, namely because consumers are skeptical of the overall concept. Some consumers believe that the advanced technology equates to “robots will take over the world,” and incidents of just one or two tragic accidents can diminish years of good work that have helped enhance the safety benefits autonomous technology delivers.

Deloitte found that consumers need reassurance of an established safety record—in real-world conditions—to make sure self-driving vehicles can handle the variables that exist while operating among human drivers. Consumers also say they would be more accepting of self-driving vehicles if they were brought to market by a brand they trust, such as a traditional auto manufacturer. In the United States, for example, 47% of consumers say they’d most trust a self-driving car from a traditional auto manufacturer, while about 50% of the market would support a new autonomous company to emerge or a technology company like Google.

In terms of the features auto manufacturers should be placing their overall bets on, safety rules the roost. Interestingly, however, the safety features that consumers are looking for in a vehicle, like informing them of dangerous driving situations and recognizing objects on the road and avoiding a collision, are safety features available through autonomous technology, explained Robinson.

“Consumers only want to buy one advanced technology at a time,” he said. “They want to get used to using it before jumping totally in. And that’s how we think autonomy will eventually get into the market: through incremental steps that get consumers used to the technology.”

And although consumers may be interested in new vehicle technologies like autonomous, are they willing to pay for it? The answer is no: Robinson said that Deloitte research found that some consumers are not willing to pay a dime to access advanced technologies, with the expectation that in time, these new innovations will simply be built into new vehicles. 

No mobility discussion would be complete without touching on the topic of ride-sharing, and Robinson agreed that shared mobility should be top of mind for traditional stakeholders in the auto industry.

Ride-hailing in India and China far outpace other global markets, but the United States is emerging: Almost one-quarter of U.S. consumers say they use ride-hailing services at least once a week, compared to 47% of consumers in India and 43% in China. Not surprising, ride-hailing is more closely connected to the younger demographic versus GenXers and Boomers.

“Think about growth potential of these services,” said Robinson. “They are not a fad. Getting these services entrenched in consumer minds means there’s even more potential as younger consumers grow into their peak earning years. These ride-hailing consumers are also questioning whether they even need to own a car.”

The Fuels Institute’s Annual Meeting took place May 23-25 in Denver, with more than 100 fuel and automotive industry stakeholders focusing on influential market trends that will impact consumers and the current and future transportation market. For more information about the Fuels Institute and its research initiatives, go to fuelsinstitute.org.

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