Cashless and Cardless by 2020

Experts say that more consumers will ditch both cash and plastic in favor of mobile payments within eight years.

April 23, 2012

NEW YORK - The future of money might be your smartphone, according to a new Pew Research Center report.

"Within the next decade, smart-device swiping will have gained mainstream acceptance as a method of payment and could largely replace cash and credit cards for most online and in-store purchases by smartphone and tablet owners, according to a new survey of technology experts and stakeholders."

According to the report, one in 10 Americans have used their cell phone to make a charitable contribution by text message, and more than one-third of smartphone owners have used their phones for online banking services like paying bills or checking a balance. Also, 46% of mobile apps users have purchased an app using a mobile device. Additional research from comScore reveals that 38% of smartphone users have used their device to purchase goods of some kind, such as music, e-books or movies; clothing and accessories; tickets and daily deals.

The report cites a March 2012 Federal Reserve report that says 21% of mobile phone owners had used mobile banking services in the past year and another 11% of mobile owners plan to use such services in the next 12 months. The study also found that about 12% of mobile phone owners have paid bills online or transferred money directly to another person??s account via their mobile device.

"In light of these trends, a number of financial services and technology firms have set their sights on integrating mobile devices into the broader, multi-trillion-dollar retail economy. As a result, the infrastructure and tools for safe, reliable mobile purchasing has been advancing rapidly in recent years," writes the Pew Research Center.

Citing the advancements of mobile wallet technologies, such as the Google Wallet and near field communication (NFC) capabilities, the study notes that proponents of this growth argue that these mobile wallet systems "hold a number of advantages over the use of cash and credit cards for payment."

Meanwhile, critics say that a number of factors might limit widespread adoption of mobile payments. "For starters, not everyone will use a smartphone. Other analysts raised questions about whether credit card companies will move away from the current profitable system in the developed world. Other concerns include the potential susceptibility of NFC to hackers, market fragmentation, and lack of interoperability of mobile finance systems due to the many different platforms being developed and implemented, and questions about whether consumers will feel comfortable storing the intimate details of their financial lives in the cloud," writes the Pew Research Center.

In light of these concerns and possibilities, the Pew Research Center and Elon University??s Imagining the Internet Center asked experts and other Internet stakeholders to offer their predictions on what the future of mobile payments could look like in 2020.

Sixty-five percent agreed that by 2020, most people will have embraced and adopted using their smartphone for purchases, "nearly eliminating the need for cash or credit cards. ??Cash and credit cards will have mostly disappeared from many of the transactions that occur in advanced countries."

For more insights and to read the full report, visit the Pew Research Center??s website.

Also, be sure to read the upcoming May issue of NACS Magazine, which features two articles dedicated to the topic of mobile payments and mobile security, and what the future holds for the convenience and fuel retailing industry.

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