WASHINGTON – The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) launched its Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) this week, offering long-term projections of energy supply, demand and prices through 2040.

Projections in the AEO2015 focus on the factors expected to shape U.S. energy markets in the coming decades. The projections provide a basis for examination and discussion of energy market trends and serve as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in U.S. energy policies, rules and regulations, as well as the potential role of advanced technologies.

“EIA's AEO2015 shows that the advanced technologies are reshaping the U.S. energy economy,” said EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski. “With continued growth in oil and natural gas production, growth in the use of renewables, and the application of demand-side efficiencies, the projections show the potential to eliminate net U.S. energy imports in the 2020 to 2030 timeframe. The United States has been a net importer of energy since the 1950s. In cases with the highest supply and lowest demand outlooks, the United States becomes a significant net exporter of energy.”

The analysis in the AEO2015 focuses on six cases: Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource. U.S. net energy imports are predicted to decline and ultimately end in most of the cases, driven by growth in U.S. energy production — led by crude oil and natural gas — increased use of renewables, and only modest growth in demand.

According to key findings:

• Continued strong growth in domestic production of crude oil from tight formations reduces net imports of petroleum and other liquids.
• Regional variations in domestic crude oil and natural gas production can force significant shifts in crude oil and natural gas flows between U.S. regions, requiring investment in or realignment of pipelines and other midstream infrastructure.
• Technology and policy promote slower growth of energy demand.
• Renewables meet much of the growth in electricity demand.
• Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions stabilize with improvements in energy and carbon intensity of electricity generation.

Additional report highlights indicated that Brent crude oil will rise steadily after 2015, in response to growth in demand; however, downward price pressure from rising U.S. crude oil production keeps the Brent price below $80/bbl through 2020. U.S. crude oil production starts to decline after 2020, but increased output from non-OECD and OPEC producers helps to keep the Brent price below $100/bbl through most of the next decade and limits price increases through 2040, when Brent reaches roughly $140/bbl.

There are variations among the alternative cases cited in the AEO2015: In the Low Oil Price case, the Brent price is $52/bbl in 2015 and reaches $76/bbl in 2040. In the High Oil Price case, the Brent price reaches $252/bbl in 2040. In the High Oil and Gas Resource case, with significantly more U.S. production than the Reference case, Brent is under $130/bbl in 2040, more than $10/bbl below its Reference case price.

Access the entire report from the EIA website.