NEW YORK - Rising pump prices in North America could hurt consumer spending, two Nieslen Company analysts report on their blog. Todd Hale, senior vice president of consumer & shopper insights, and Carman Allison, director of shopper & industry insights, wrote last week that despite positive reports about the economy and improved consumer confidence, high gasoline prices could shift consumers back home and keeping an eye on spending until pump prices stabilize.

However, current political crisis in the Middle East and Africa areas rich in oil have triggered an upward climb on gasoline prices that analysts predict will continue for some time. Many point to differences between the 2008 price increases and today??s $4 a gallon gasoline, but the pair write that "Today, with summer still months away and with prices in the U.S. already nearing the $4 mark at some locations, it is possible that gas prices may surpass 2008 levels."

The two posited that the impact of higher prices on the household budget would be around $50 up to $200 a month if gasoline prices continue to rise. Meanwhile, the cost of commodities are also on the rise.

Nielsen sees the following consumer trends: increased trip compression, less eating out, more value-conscious shopping alternatives, and increased use of coupons. "The impact to consumers is real and wallets will continue to be squeezed. Household wages are not keeping pace with inflation, so in the end, consumers will need to dig deeper into their pockets to pay for 'everyday?? things. The coping mechanisms consumers applied during the recession will be their back-up plan as we head into the summer," they wrote.

They end their blog with some good news for retailers: "Trip capture will once again be paramount and there are opportunities for retailers and manufacturers to convert a likely decline in out-of-home eating and entertainment into spending for at-home options. We would urge manufacturers and retailers alike to actively engage their consumers and shoppers on this front and not simply sit on the sidelines. Value messaging will be important, but also think about the emotional connection with messaging that reflects the fun and enjoyment to be had with family members and friends."