MIAMI BEACH, Fla. – Dr. James Johnson of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill presented an in-depth demographics session at last week’s NACS Leadership Forum. Johnson’s session, “The Great Demographic Disruptions: Implications for the Future of the Convenience Store Industry,” dove into demographic trends and the challenges and opportunities they present for c-store owners.

Johnson, who is a William Rand Kenan, Jr. Distinguished Professor at UNC, cited extensive data from the 2010 United States Census to hone in on six key trends that c-store owners should be paying attention to:

• The South Rises—Again. From 1910 to 1970, the South only captured 30% of the net American population: “It was the place to leave,” Johnson said. “[But] it went from being the place to leave to the place to be.” A population redistribution from the Midwest and Northeast to the West and South began to occur, and from 2000 through 2008, large numbers of Black, Hispanic, elderly and foreign-born people began migrating to the South—most specifically Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, which have seen 71% of the total influx. “It’s all about migration, [and] it’s all about immigration,” Johnson said. 
• The Browning of America. U.S. immigration trends have changed significantly over the decades, with high numbers of people coming in from Europe from 1921 through 1960, and a shift to Asian and Latin American immigrants from 1961 through 1986. But Johnson discussed the importance of visible and “invisible immigrants,” noting there have been between 300,000 and 400,000 illegal immigrants to the U.S. over the past several decades. The “browning” of America refers to any non-whites both entering the country and having children, and this is greatly impacted by immigration. “You need to understand we’re not having an honest discussion about illegal immigration in this country,” he said when he shared that there are roughly 11.5 million unauthorized immigrants residing in the U.S. today.
• Marrying Out is “In.” Americans are marrying outside their race or ethnicity in higher numbers than ever before, and Johnson said this has great implications for c-store owners. “Be careful how you portray family life in your advertisements,” he said. He said migration and immigration are age-selective processes, meaning that while young people move, old people tend not to. So, while the aging population in your community may fit with more traditional marriage stereotypes, your younger population will be more transient and include more diverse families.
• The Silver Tsunami Is About to Hit. “Seven days a week, 365 days a year for the next 20 years, we Boomers will be turning 65,” Johnson said. “For the first time in history, we have four generations in the workforce.” Johnson said this shift in the workforce has enormous implications for the c-store industry. He challenged attendees to think about their business succession plans. “You’re all smart people—what’s going to happen to that knowledge when you leave?” He added that while child care is pretty predictable, elder care can be required at all hours, meaning those people caring for retiring Boomers will have to figure out how to squeeze work in. “It’s a $40 billion per year problem as far as work loss productivity,” Johnson said. “This is the game changer, ladies and gentlemen. This is the elephant in the room.”
• The End of Men. “Where are the boys? Where are the men?” Johnson asked the audience. And apparently, they are becoming scarce. Between death, disability, lack of education and imprisonment, the percentage of men to women in the workforce is steadily changing, and c-store owners need to be aware of this as it pertains to their employees and customer base. “If you look at the data, the failure starts early in the education cycle,” Johnson said. “It’s a complex set of forces operating.” Johnson cited Hanna Rosin’s book of the same name for further data on how to navigate this changing demographic.
• “Cooling Water” (from Grandma’s Well). Census data clearly indicated that a higher percentage of children are now living with one or both grandparents, pointing to multigenerational households that are putting millennials in the position of being responsible for elder care. And with a $200 billion spending power in 2017, millennials are a population group that c-store owners need to pay very close attention to. If these young people are living in multigenerational settings in high numbers, their needs as customers will be different than young people of past generations. While millennials are the most mobile and tech savvy yet, they are also more debt-burdened and asset-light than their parents, with 55% of the under-25 population either under- or unemployed. “They still like brick-and-mortar stores, but they like integrated, seamless shopping experiences,” Johnson said. And on the flip side: “Make sure your facilities are senior friendly [too].”

Kevin Smartt, the CEO of Kwik Chek Food Stores Inc. in Texas, moderated a Q&A portion at the end of the session, in which attendees asked about elder care, debt and how to leverage knowledge. Referencing the six population groups he discussed, Johnson said: “If you want to tap these markets, the market is wide open.”

He added that c-store owners now, more than ever, need entrepreneurial acumen, agility and flexibility. “The new normal in our economy is certain uncertainty,” Johnson said.

The NACS Leadership Forum, a two-and-a-half day, invitation-only, world-class event that brings together retailers and suppliers, wrapped up Friday.

Photos from the NACS Leadership Forum can be viewed on the NACS Facebook page.